19 August 2010 | Luca Del Buono
Climate Change, Food and agriculture, Water

 

A collaborative set of reports published by the Royal Society on Monday urges agricultural businesses to invest in research to meet the demands of a rising world population. The research was funded by UK government Foresight Project intended to address major issues and advise policy on long-term issues such as obesity, flooding and food production.

The problem of food production was addressed over a century ago by Thomas Robert Malthus, a scholar who proposed the idea that agriculture could not keep up with human growth, as the population increases exponentially while agriculture increases incrementally.

Malthus' equation was proved incorrect when the agricultural revolution expanded food production along with the population. Crop production increased at a rapid pace since 1945 due to the use of farm machines, pesticides, fertilizers and division of labour practices. The most recent development was the use of GMO plants, first introduced in 1986, which were hardier and produced greater yields.

Food production will increase 70 percent over the next 40 years, when the population is expected to reach 9 billion. The population expansion will mainly occur in the developing world. Additionally, per capita consumption will continue to increase due to urbanization and food industry marketing.

Increasing populations will need more cultivated land than is currently available. In the developing world, the ratio of farmland per person is declining. The ratio is most severe in Africa, where it is projected that the average person will have only 0.15 hectares by 2040, compared to current developed country per capita use of 0.65 hectares.

Water supplies available for agriculture will also decrease with demand, resulting in an 18% reduction in water availability. Additionally, models of climate change show that rising temperatures will dry up run-off.

While the rising carbon dioxide content of the air will initially have the effect of increasing the yield of plants, higher temperatures will ultimately reduce yield and encourage weed and insect proliferation. Changes in precipitation patterns will also cause a decline in crop production.

Populations in the developing world are likely to be the most affected by the decreasing water supply, especially irrigated crops such as rice in South Asia. The International Food Policy Research Institute recommends aggressive agricultural productivity investments of US$7.1–7.3 billion to adjust for climate change.

Innovations to increase the energy efficiency of agricultural equipment will also be required, as agriculture is largely dependant upon fossil fuels. Efficiency innovations are currently being applied by means of heat recovery ventilation (HRV or MVHR) which transform heat into usable energy, and variable-speed drives, which decrease equipment energy use through the use of pumps and fans.

The reports have additionally proposed that governments begin to regulate food producers to decrease the wastage of perishable goods and agricultural crops that accounts for the 30-40% food waste in both developed and developing countries. A research group led by biologist Charles Godfray of Oxford University states,

"Major advances can be achieved with the concerted application of current technologies and the importance of investing in research sooner rather than later to enable the food system to cope with challenges in the coming decades."

Author: Cristina Brooks | Climate Action

Image: Irargerich | Flickr

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