Pollution levels could rise 50 percent unless action is taken, warns OECD

The world should brace itself for a 50 percent increase of global greenhouse emissions by 2050, unless new legislation targeting climate change is enforced, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) warned today.

The cause of soaring emissions will be the growing global economy, which, despite the recent recession, is set to quadruple in size by the middle of this century. The subsequent rising living standards will be accompanied by ever growing demands for energy, food and natural resources, and, as a result, 

pollution levels could rocket unless there is policy to curb emissions. The costs of inaction could be colossal, both in economic and human terms, the OECD claimed in its Environment Outlook to 2050.

The predictions for future energy demands and supply make for bleak reading: the world’s energy demands in 2050 are expected to increase by a further 80 percent, and the OECD believes that 85 percent of this energy will still be reliant on fossil fuel based energy. Renewables are forecasted to make up just 10 percent and nuclear the remaining 5 percent. All this could lead to a 50 percent increase in greenhouse gas emissions and worsening air pollution, especially in built up urban areas.

Urban air pollution will become the top environmental cause of mortality worldwide by 2050, ahead of dirt water and lack of sanitation, the OECD said. The number of premature deaths from exposure to particulate air pollutants leading to respiratory failure could double from current levels to 3.6 million every year globally.

Worryingly, the global average temperature will exceed the internationally agreed warning limit. The OECD report stated that temperatures by 2100 will rise by 3 to 6 degrees Celsius, the globally agreed limit is 2 degrees Celsius. This will be due to the continued reliance on fossil fuels, which will cause carbon dioxide emissions from energy use to grow by 70 percent.

On land, the OECD forecasts global biodiversity to decline by a further 10 percent, with significant losses in Asia, Europe and Southern Africa. Areas of mature forests are projected to shrink by 13 percent. About one-third of biodiversity in rivers and lakes worldwide has already been lost, and further losses are projected to 2050. Yet despite this, the report adds that global water demand will increase by some 55 percent, due to growing demand from manufacturing, thermal power plants and rising domestic use.

These projections highlight the urgent need for new thinking, says OECD Secretary-General Angel Gurría.

“We have already witnessed the collapse of some fisheries due to overfishing, with significant impacts on coastal communities, and severe water shortages are a looming threat to agriculture,” said Gurría.

“These enormous environmental challenges cannot be addressed in isolation. They must be managed in the context of other global challenges, such as food and energy security, and poverty alleviation.”

To avert the grim future painted by the Environmental Outlook to 2050, the report recommends a cocktail of policy solutions; including using environmental taxes and emissions trading schemes to make pollution more costly than greener alternatives; valuing and pricing natural assets and ecosystem services like clean air, water and biodiversity for their true worth; removing environmentally harmful subsidies to fossil fuels or wasteful irrigation schemes; and encouraging green innovation by making polluting production and consumption modes more expensive while providing public support for basic R&D.
 

 

Image 01: National Parks Service | Wikimedia Commons

Image 02: Kevin Dooley | Wikimedia Commons

Image 03: Climate Action Stock Photo

Image 04: Climate Action Stock Photo