More action to prevent breaching two degree target, says study

Decisive action is required before 2020 to avoid exceeding the two degrees level of global warming, set as a target at COP15 in Copenhagen, according to a University of Melbourne review of 193 emissions scenarios.

This comprehensive study says a target of 44 billion tons of carbon dioxide emissions by 2020 is ‘feasible’ and an economically optimal pathway in order to avoid hitting the two degree limit. Currently emissions are at 48 billion tons per year and therefore the growing emission trend will have to be reversed in the near future to hit this target.

"Our study revealed there are many emissions scenarios that are economically and technologically feasible pathways to a two degree target, but that for countries to get closer to this target they need to honour the higher end of their pledges," says Dr Malte Meinshausen of the Melbourne School of Earth Sciences. "As long as we keep emitting carbon dioxide, the climate will continue to warm. There is no way around a zero carbon economy sooner or later if we want to stay below 2 degrees," he added.

"If the international community is serious about avoiding dangerous climate change, countries seem ill-advised by continuing to increase emissions, which they have done so in the last ten years, which ultimately will lead to disastrous consequences later on," he said. It has been argued recently that the two degree target, while realistic, is unlikely to be prevented unless significant action is taken and global agreement is reached at an international summit.