17 February 2012 | Alan Bouquet
Carbon, Climate Change, Energy

 

Switching to natural gas will have no effect on temperatures until the 22nd century.

Switching to low carbon technologies will not cause a turn around in global warming until the end of the century, warns a study in Environmental Research Letters. Using technologies with slight improvements in carbon emissions, like natural gas over coal, will not have any noticeable effect t until the 22nd century.

The study says widespread implementation of renewable energy technologies will cause an increase in emissions initially, due to the energy required for construction, but this will tail off after this initial period. The study claims however, that CO2 levels will increase to a greater level than with coal fired plants, but that this will be a short term effect, with much more environmental damage coming from fossil fuel use in the late 21st century.

It is important to stress with a piece of research like this, that the difference between business as usual and a strong switch to renewables is huge. Even though the climate will not start to turn around until the second half of the century, this is far preferable to a run away five degree plus shift in climate that could occur with a business as usual approach.

"Achieving substantial reductions in temperatures relative to the coal-based system will take the better part of a century, and will depend on rapid and massive deployment of some mix of conservation, wind, solar, and nuclear, and possibly carbon capture and storage," the report says.

Renewables are therefore not a quick fix; we must be prepared for further increases in temperatures even with a greater than anticipated roll out of green technologies.
 

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