9 January 2012 | Alan Bouquet
Carbon, Climate Change

 

We won't be seeing another ice age any time soon say scientists

Scientists have announced that the next ice age, due in the next 1,500 years, will be ‘deferred’ due to global carbon dioxide emissions. We have been in a period of relative warmth since the last ice age, which ended some 11,500 years ago.

"At current levels of CO2, even if emissions stopped now we'd probably have a long interglacial duration determined by whatever long-term processes could kick in and bring (atmospheric) CO2 down," said Luke Skinner from Cambridge University. The level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is currently around 390 parts per million and the levels would have to drop below 240 for a glaciation to begin.

The process required to reduce these elevated levels naturally would take thousands of years, according to current research. Stored heat in the oceans and various feedback effects causing polar melt would delay any recovery of the system for an extended period.

Climate sceptics are of course using the news as an opportunity to voice their opinions; stating that carbon emissions are good for humanity in repelling another ice age. This is of course a rather tenuous argument. We are already at a point where an ice age will not occur, so there is no argument for not reducing emissions; current emissions will remain in the atmosphere for centuries anyway.

Skinner has responded by stating, “…it's missing the point, because where we're going is not maintaining our currently warm climate but heating it much further, and adding CO2 to a warm climate is very different from adding it to a cold climate. The rate of change with CO2 is basically unprecedented, and there are huge consequences if we can't cope with that.”

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