Has COP16 put too much pressure on COP17?
The 16th Conference of Parties (COP16), in Cancun, ended on a positive note on Saturday morning with an agreement some delegates described as a step forward in tackling global warming.
The 16th Conference of Parties (COP16), in Cancun, ended on a positive note on Saturday morning with an agreement some delegates described as a step forward in tackling global warming.
"Cancun has done its job," said UN climate chief Christiana Figueres on Saturday at a press conference. "The beacon of hope has been reignited and faith in the multilateral climate change process to deliver results has been restored."
Expectations were low going into COP16 and the hope is that the talks paved the way for a legally binding agreement to be reached between nations at COP17 in Durban, South Africa.
"I think that it's a positive thing to see a worldwide agreement, one that includes all of the major economies," said Todd stern, the US Special Envoy on Climate Change to reporters on Sunday (12th December) at a plenary session at the Moon Palace Hotel.
"What we have now is a text, while [it's] not perfect, [it] is certainly a basis for moving forward," said Stern. "It is very good from our point of view," he added. The Cancun Agreement does not address legally binding emissions reductions for the US, an issue which will be held over to COP17.
Another issue in next year's COP17 talks will be the impending Republican takeover of the US House of Representatives. Some Republicans dismiss the scientific evidence of man-made global warming. Four Republican Senators sent a letter to US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, demanding a freeze on US$3 billion of planned US climate aid in 2010 to 2011.
The long-term finance plan agreed at COP16 is for US$100 billion a year to be given to developing nations by 2020. At present levels of funding between nations has not yet been agreed. Given the Republican stance on funding and climate change, a legally-binding agreement on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions would most likely not gain approval in the US.
Countries like Japan and Russia would be unlikely to sign a binding agreement at COP17 without the US on board. At COP16 they refused to agree to extend the Kyoto Protocol, insisting that a new agreement should be drafted to include all major emitters, including the US, who refused to sign the Kyoto Protocol.
Prime Minister Meles Zenawi of Ethiopia, speaking to a press conference in Cancun on Saturday (11th December) said: "The key thing for us is not whether the American Congress is controlled by this or that party..." He said that it was more important that developed nations help the developing world with financial support to help combat climate change.
In order for the world to agree on a new, all-encompassing treaty with deeper cuts to succeed Kyoto - whose targets expire in 2012 - the US Congress must pass legislation to cap US emissions of carbon dioxide and other GHGs. On this matter Todd Stern was not as optimistic. "I don't think that's going to happen right away," said Stern.
What will happen is a Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD) initiative as well as a Green Climate Fund that will handle tens of billions of dollars.
Some have declared that global warming will not be addressed with top-down, legally binding treaties, but with self-assigned targets and bilateral deals to help create low-carbon economies, with goals set by G20 summits. It is hoped that these voluntary activities may provide sufficient measures to mitigate climate change.
Developing countries that are not bound by mandatory limits are looking at ways to cut their GHGs. Mexico is examining how to convert its urban solid waste into energy, while some of its farmers are producing shade-grown coffee for Starbucks using practices that requisition carbon.
Steve Cochran, Vice President for Climate and Air at the Environmental Defense Fund Advocacy Group, said this new period of experimentation could lay the foundation for a more ambitious global effort in the future.
"People need to see, touch and feel that some of this stuff actually works," Cochran said to the Washington Post last Friday (10th December 2010). "And when they do that, they'll be willing to take broader steps," he added.
However, the latest UN scientific calculations show that the current emissions-reduction pledges, even if all are fulfilled, will provide half of what is needed to keep temperatures rising to dangerous levels.
If too little is done, the UN Science Network predicted temperatures rising by up to 6.4 degrees Celsius by 2100. In a reminder of what is at stake, NASA reported last week that the January-November 2010 period was the warmest globally in the 131-year record.
Author: Leroy Robinson |