22 December 2010 | Marianna Keen

 

Climate change negotiations have a close link to the extensive geopolitical climate so how 2011 will pan out before COP17 is a prominent matter and looks to be altering.

The 16th Conference of Parties (COP16) in Cancun demonstrated that the politics of climate change are fluctuating furiously, and consequently focusing on national and subnational commitments was accepted as progress in the UN summit.

The party political scene in the US appears to have aided a shift in the approach taken to climate action. Since Republicans took the majority in Congress, powerful US politicians have vowed to thwart climate change mitigation efforts when they take leadership positions.

Nations are realising they cannot depend on a binding treaty. Several countries declined to sign a new Kyoto Agreement in COP16 without the involvement of the US, and developing nations exclaimed that they would not agree to a text which did not exert developed nations to significant emissions reductions.

Bolivia protested that the Cancun text, which all other nations finally agreed to, did not tie developed nations to legally binding emissions cuts, and neither was it sufficient to urgently prevent substantial climate change.

COP16 showed that through acceptance of a politics and science divide, and perhaps also a realisation of the high costs so far spent in vain on climate talks and efforts, nations have been pushed to focus on negotiation rather than binding commitments.

The national and localised plans made in Cancun indicate less reliance on the government and focus on a bottom-up approach, which may prove more effective given the massively wide range of political, economic and technical approaches to climate change policy across the world. It may now be impossible to frame a much stronger international agreement that would satisfy all governments, businesses and civil society groups.

A parting of ways economically between the euro zone, emerging markets and the US over the last year, will compound the risks in each of the world's big three, having an impact on political and climate change negotiations for the future.

Contradictory policy choices are inevitable but new voids are opening up, and with them come more chances for conflict.

The euro zone is a source of controversy – financial as well as economic. In core countries this fiscal consolidation is voluntary and arguably masochistic. Conversely, the economy in the US will shift in an alternate direction, with the tax cut agreement reached by President Obama and congressional Republicans on 7th December 2010 far bigger than expected.

From China to Brazil, emerging economies have travelled further apart, with spare capacity being used up and foreign capital pouring in. Worries about asset bubbles have been joined by broader concerns of overheating according to The Economist (11th-17th December 2010).

Emerging economies over the next five years are expected to account for over 50 per cent of global growth but only 13 per cent of the increase in net global public debt, which The Economist states may further skew the debt ridden West and thrifty East rather than rebalance the world economy in the immediate future.

Although negotiations were made in Cancun, tense geopolitical relationships remain globally. Even the thriving clean tech industry, which brings much optimism to reaching climate targets, has caused continual conflicts between China, the US and Europe.

The global relationship with Russia is another matter that will continue to shape the political climate and the attainment of an international climate change agenda. With many nations depending on gas imports from Russia, the world feels pressurised by its divisive geopolitics. However the West also has a lot of influence over Russia since it depends on oil and gas exports, and wants to join both the OECD rich country club and the World Trade Organisation.

There is no telling what the coming year holds, however estimates indicate that in many respects a nationalised and localised focus on commitments on climate change could be the best course to take while the political situation between key areas of the world is expected to diverge.

It is anticipated that negotiations over the coming year will develop in all areas so that a binding treaty can be made in COP17 in South Africa, in 2011, replacing the Kyoto Protocol which is due to expire in 2012.

Author: Marianna Keen | Climate Action

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