Climate change calculations put millions at risk, says new report

A new report published by Friends of the Earth (FOE), says that governments are gambling with millions of peoples lives, by underestimating the percentage of cuts to emissions for the next 40 years. The report was published on December 15.

Pablo Solon of Bolivia said, at climate change talks in Cancun, that reducing emissions based on 1990 levels, is not realistic and instead reducing them to pre-industrial times, is what needs to be done to stop global warming. Many delegates disagreed with this rash, radical idea.

Governments have so far based their calculations for cutting emissions on only a 50:50 chance of holding temperature rises to 2C, the point that many scientists consider to be the threshold for catastrophic climate change which, once passed, will leave millions exposed to drought, hunger and flooding. This constitutes unacceptable risks says the report.

The reports suggests, that to have a reasonable chance of slowing down climate change, emissions will need to fall 16 per cent by 2030 worldwide, based on 1990 levels.

The research was reviewed by Kevin Anderson, Director on the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change, just after the 16th Conference of Parties. Negotiators formed the Cancun Agreement, an agreement dedicated to cutting emissions. Unfortunately some of the biggest emitters refused to increase their cuts.

FOE say that if they could equally share out the emission cuts – on the basis of the average population between now and 2050– then the US would need to cut emissions by 95 per cent by 2030, the EU 83 per cent and the UK 80 per cent. A week ago the British Government said they were aiming to cut emissions by 60 percent by 2030.

China would need to peak its emissions by 2013 and then reduce them by 5 per cent per year, the report said.

The report continues to argue that if we don't make these radical cuts now, the harder it will become and global warming will increase at a dramatic pace.

If the world had cut emissions by just 1.5 per cent 15 years ago, they would have been a likely chance that the 2C rise in global warming would have been avoided, the report says.

"To make the cuts necessary, developing countries need to be provided with finance and technology. Cancún made tiny steps in dealing with these issues but we are a million miles from what is necessary. Countries are paying lip-service to two degrees. Urgent action and research are needed to see just how much emissions can be cut. It may even need geo-engineering [manipulating the world's climate]", said Mike Childs, head of climate change at FOE.

"This report is uncomfortable but essential reading for all policymakers. It shows that the remaining global carbon budget for even a 2C temperature rise is small and diminishing," said Anderson.

"It's astonishing that the UK, EU and G8 have adopted policies based on a 50:50 chance of avoiding a two-degree rise in global temperatures – this is a reckless gamble with the lives and livelihoods of millions of people on the planet," said Andy Atkins, Director of FOE.

FOE's call to action, is for more extensive research to be done, studying where cuts can be made without making new technologies. Developing and developed nations argue that they do not have the funds to make extreme cuts, as they would need to build new technologies. However, if scientists find a new way to cut emissions without the need to create specialist technologies, cutting emission would be more accessible to all.

Author: Charity Knight | Climate Action

Image: wikipedia | creativecommons